On May 30, 2017, a book was published in the United States which in a few days became one of the best-selling books and all policy makers, academics and journalists started reading it.
The title of the book was: “War from which there is no escape: can America and China escape this trap?” (Destined For War: Can America and China Avoid Thucydides Trap)
The book mentions the Thucydides Trap, which means that the war between an emerging world power and an existing world power cannot be avoided.
Following the outbreak of the corona virus in the world, the book by Graham Ellison, a professor of international affairs at Harvard University, has once again become a hot topic.
When US President Donald Trump called Code 19 a “Chinese virus”, the American magazine Spectator wrote in a recent report that the first death at the hands of Corona was an American thought that would “reciprocate” the fact that China is a world power.
The magazine quoted Professor Graham Ellison’s book as saying that President Trump’s statement falls into the category of an “irreversible war” between the emerging world power (China) and an existing world power (the United States).
What is a Thucydides trap?
Thucydides was an ancient Greek historian who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens.
Thucydides trap is the name given to a process in which the superpower of its time feels the danger that the emerging power will take its place and it tries to stop it and in this endeavor there is a high probability of fighting.
War broke out in ancient Greece when Sparta felt threatened by Athens.
Professor Graham Ellison examines the 500-year history and identifies 16 instances in which emerging powers confronted existing forces and twelve of the sixteen resulted in war.
The book also cites the example of Britain and Germany, when Germany was about to overtake Britain in the twentieth century when the war began with the assassination of a minor royal family in the Bosnian city of Sarajevo, which the world today calls World War II. Misses
Professor Ellison says the rivalry between the United States and China is a turning point in global relations.
When the Soviet Union disintegrated on December 26, 1991, and the United States emerged as the world’s sole superpower, the United States began to think that there was no ideological rival left in the world.
The American philosopher Francis Fukuyama published an article entitled The End of History, which concluded that the ideological alternative to liberalism had disappeared with the end of the Soviet Union and human civilization. Has achieved its goals, namely representative governments, a free market and a consumer-driven consumer culture.
Why talk of war between the US and China?
When US officials described Code 19 as “Wuhan virus” and then “Chinese virus”, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman warned the United States to “focus on its work” before cursing China. ‘
Another Chinese Foreign Ministry official raised some questions for the United States and demanded that the United States test a U.S. soldier who had come to Wuhan to participate in military exercises and possibly be infected with the virus. Show results to the world.
After US officials called code 19 a “Chinese virus,” China’s ambassador to the United States called on the United States not to politicize the epidemic.
As tensions between the two countries escalated after the advent of Code 19, the Chinese-based Global Times interviewed Professor Graham Ellison, the creator of the Thucydides Trap, and asked him questions about the current situation.
Professor Graham Ellison called the allegations against Code 19 a “childish attempt” to divert attention from the real issue. He said it was an attempt by US officials to cover up their failure to deal with the situation.
There is also an ideological debate going on during this global epidemic. The United States, a proponent of liberal democracy, is pointing fingers at China’s system of government, which has been accused of covering up the spread of the corona virus.
But on the other hand, there are voices saying that China’s one-party dictatorial regime has given it the opportunity to quickly lock down a large area without any hesitation and quickly control the virus, while liberal democracy is responding. Not as fast as China.
Professor Graham Ellison said that if a one-party dictatorship has competently protected the basic right to life of its citizens while democratic governments have failed, then objections to Chinese measures in such a situation are tantamount to ‘sour grapes’. Are
Major US allies, including Britain, Spain and France, are also at risk of contracting the corona virus. However, they have distanced themselves from attempts to politicize the virus.
However, voices are emerging from India, a new ally of the United States, in which there is talk of teaching a lesson to China and Pakistan.
Tilak Devasher, a member of India’s National Security Advisory Board, wrote in an article in The Tribune, expressing his displeasure over the attitude of China and Pakistan during the Corona virus outbreak, citing the spread of Code 19 in the world. Since then, China’s attitude has been “criminal” and it cannot escape the consequences.
Tilak Devasher, who is considered to be very close to India’s national security adviser Ajit Pawar, wrote that the world must now know the consequences of handing over its manufacturing to China for such a long time.
Tilak Devasher, like US officials, is angry with the World Health Organization, which has praised Chinese efforts to control the corona virus.
Tilak Devasher writes: “No matter how much China bribes WHO officials and spreads misinformation, China cannot escape responsibility.
The debate over where the virus came from is still raging. Is it natural or man-made and deliberately left out of a laboratory? Or did it leak unintentionally?
So far no concrete evidence has come to light that any country has prepared it in a laboratory and spread it in the world for some nefarious purposes.
When the Corona virus spreads around the world, the United States and its allies will surely be attracted to it and ask for a share of the trillions of dollars that China has amassed with Western economies.